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Why Andhra’s coast is on edge: How a cyclone’s track decides who gets hit

Cyclone Arnab is forecast to make landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast on the morning of October 28 as a very severe cyclonic storm, with winds of 115 to 125 kmph and red alerts for extremely heavy rain in several districts, according to the IMD.

Cyclone Arnab is forecast to cross the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam on the morning of October 28.

The Konaseema, Yanam and Kakinada belt is among the possible landfall areas.

The track can change, which is why the IMD issues regular bulletins.

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Red alerts cover districts from Kakinada to Guntur on October 28.

Winds of 115 to 125 kmph are forecast.

Forecasts suggest it could cross the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, with the Konaseema, Yanam and Kakinada belt among the possible landfall areas, according to the reports.

The storm is expected to strengthen into a very severe cyclonic storm, according to The Hans India and other reports.

Sustained winds of 115 to 125 kmph, with gusts up to 140 kmph, are forecast by the forenoon of October 28, according to the reports.

The IMD has issued red alerts for extremely heavy rainfall, according to the reports.

Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari and Eluru districts and Yanam were under a red alert for Tuesday, October 27.

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Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitarama Raju, Anakapalle, Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru, NTR, Krishna and Guntur districts and Yanam were under a red alert for Wednesday, October 28.

Cyclone warning signals have been issued for nine ports, including Chennai, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Karaikal and Pamban, according to one report.

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has directed officials to stay on high alert and take precautionary measures to minimise inconvenience to the public, according to the reports.

Heavy rain has led to school closures in several districts of Tamil Nadu, according to LatestLY’s Chennai roundup of October 26.

Reports differ slightly on the timing of landfall, with some saying morning and others morning to afternoon, and on the exact lists of districts under alert.

The reports reviewed did not give the number of people to be evacuated or the deployment of disaster response teams.

Satellite image of Cyclone Fani over the Bay of Bengal in 2019 (file image, not Cyclone Arnab), NOAA via Wikimedia Commons, public domain

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